Bitcoin Tests $63K as ETF Outflows Return Ahead of Fed Decision

Bitcoin fell toward $63,000 as the Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting and US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a third consecutive outflow session. The withdrawals have weakened the ETF support behind the recent recovery, although the broader ten-session total remains positive. Bitcoin has also broken below a rising 4-hour channel, leaving $63,200 as immediate support. BTC must reclaim $64,300 and move back inside the channel to reduce the risk of a deeper decline.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin traded near $63,500 on July 28 after closing above $66,000 less than a week earlier.
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $476.8 million in combined outflows across the latest three reported sessions.
• Those withdrawals followed seven consecutive inflow days that brought in $999.3 million.
• Bitcoin has broken below its rising 4-hour channel. A close below $63,200 could expose $62,500, while buyers must reclaim $64,300 and the broken channel boundary to repair the structure.

Fed Decision Becomes Bitcoin’s Immediate Market Test

The Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting on July 28 and will release its decision at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on July 29. The announcement will be followed by a press conference in which the details will be revealed.

The central bank left its target rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% during its June meeting. Most economists still expect another hold, but markets were pricing roughly a one-in-three chance of an increase before the July decision. Higher energy prices and uncertainty over inflation have made the outcome less predictable than earlier meetings.

Bitcoin’s reaction will depend on more than the rate decision itself. Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments on inflation and the September meeting could determine whether traders rebuild risk exposure or remain cautious.

ETF Outflows Interrupt a Seven-Day Inflow Run

US spot Bitcoin ETFsv recorded seven consecutive inflow sessions between July 14 and July 22. The funds attracted a combined $999.3 million during that period, according to Farside Investors.

Bitcoin ETF flow data. Chart via: Farside Investors

The sequence ended with a $225.1 million outflow on July 23. Another $240.1 million left the funds on July 24, followed by $11.6 million on July 27. The three sessions produced combined withdrawals of $476.8 million.

BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $423.5 million of those outflows, showing that most of the reversal came from the largest US spot Bitcoin ETF.

The withdrawals have not erased the preceding inflow run. Across the ten sessions from July 14 through July 27, the funds still recorded approximately $522.5 million in net inflows.

The data points to weak ETF support but it’s not necessarily a complete reversal in demand. Continued withdrawals after the Fed decision would make it harder for Bitcoin to rebuild momentum, while renewed inflows could help stabilize the price.

Bitcoin Pulls Back as Markets Await the Fed

Bitcoin traded near $63,500 on July 28, down from its July 22 close above $66,000. Ether and several major altcoins also moved lower, placing the BTC decline within a broader reduction in crypto risk rather than an isolated Bitcoin selloff.

BTC had briefly recovered above $65,000 as easing geopolitical tensions lowered oil prices and improved risk appetite. That recovery faded as attention returned to the Federal Reserve meeting.

The decline has erased much of the progress made during Bitcoin’s earlier attempt to hold $65,000 as ETF flows improved.

The price move coincided with softer ETF demand and uncertainty over monetary policy. Neither factor establishes direct causation, but both reduced support for Bitcoin before the Fed decision.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis on the 4-Hour Chart

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Chart via TradingView.

Bitcoin traded inside a rising channel through much of July, producing a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The upper boundary capped the advance near $66,700, while the lower boundary supported pullbacks around July 17 and July 25.

The latest selloff broke below the lower channel boundary and the $64,300 horizontal level. This shifts the trendline from support into resistance and weakens the recovery structure that had remained intact since early July.

Bitcoin is now testing $63,200. This level previously acted as resistance before the move higher and later supported several pullbacks. A 4-hour close below it would confirm that the channel breakdown is gaining follow-through and expose $62,500.

The $62,500 level remains the main structural support. A confirmed break below it would invalidate the immediate recovery and bring $61,500 into view. That lower-level marks an intermediate reaction area from early July.

If $61,500 fails, Bitcoin could return toward $60,000. The psychological level also sits near the base of the July recovery and remains the main downside target on the current chart.

For buyers, reclaiming $64,300 would provide the first sign of stabilization. However, that move alone would not restore the rising channel.

The broken lower channel boundary sits near $64,600 at the time of the chart and will continue rising. Bitcoin must close back above that trendline to neutralize the breakdown and reopen a move toward $66,000.

The Federal Reserve announcement may produce temporary moves through nearby levels. Completed 4-hour closes will provide stronger confirmation than the first reaction.

What to Expect Next

• Bullish case: Bitcoin holds $63,200, reclaims $64,300 and closes back above the broken channel boundary near $64,600. That would reopen a move toward $66,000.
• Bearish case: A 4-hour close below $63,200 exposes $62,500. Further weakness could bring $61,500 and then $60,000 into view.
• Key catalyst: The Federal Reserve’s July 29 rate decision and guidance on the September meeting.
• Invalidation: A 4-hour close below $62,500 would invalidate the immediate recovery structure and confirm a deeper extension of the channel breakdown.

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What is Bitcoin’s immediate support?

The first support sits at $63,200. A 4-hour close below it could expose $62,500.

Are Bitcoin ETF investors turning bearish?

Not necessarily. The latest three sessions recorded $476.8 million in outflows, but the broader ten-session period still remained positive by about $522.5 million.

What does Bitcoin need to do to recover?

Bitcoin must reclaim $64,300 and then close back above the broken channel boundary. A move above $66,000 would provide stronger confirmation.

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