Bitcoin Makes Another Run at $65K as ETF Buyers Return After Fed Hold

Bitcoin recovered toward $64,800 after the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% despite three officials voting for an increase. US spot Bitcoin ETFs also ended a four-session outflow streak with $32.1 million in net inflows. BTC has reclaimed $64,300, but it remains below the broken channel boundary on 4H chart near $65,000 and must clear $66,000 to confirm a stronger recovery.

Key Takeaways

• Three Fed officials voted for a 25-basis-point increase despite the decision to hold rates.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs added $32.1 million after losing $526.5 million across the previous four sessions.
• BTC has reclaimed $64,300 but has not yet moved back inside its former rising channel on 4-hour charts.

Fed Hold Brings Relief but Keeps Rate Risk Alive

The Federal Reserve held its target rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29. The decision passed by nine votes to three, with Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan supporting a 25-basis-point increase.

The dissenting votes made the decision less reassuring than a routine hold. Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, while officials have left the door open to further action if price pressures persist.

Markets interpreted the decision as a hawkish hold rather than a shift toward easier policy. The chance of a September increase remained in play after the meeting, limiting the relief created by avoiding an immediate hike.

ETF Inflows Return After Four Days of Withdrawals

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $32.1 million in net inflows on July 29, ending four consecutive outflow sessions that removed a combined $526.5 million.

Bitcoin ETF flow data. Chart via: Farside Investors

BlackRock’s IBIT added $89.8 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC and ARK 21Shares’ ARKB recorded a combined $57.7 million in withdrawals. The remaining funds posted no net movement, meaning the positive total came entirely from IBIT rather than a broad return in demand.

The inflow recovered only a small share of the previous withdrawals. A return to positive flows across several funds would provide stronger confirmation that ETF demand is improving.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis on the 4-Hour Chart

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Chart via TradingView.

Bitcoin traded near $64,800 on July 30 after recovering from the decline toward $63,200 before the Fed decision.

In our pre-Fed analysis, $63,200 was the immediate support and $64,300 was the first recovery level after Bitcoin broke below its rising channel. Buyers defended $63,200, and BTC has now moved back above $64,300.

That reclaim reduces the immediate breakdown pressure, but Bitcoin has not yet returned inside the former channel. Its broken lower boundary is now near $65,000 and continues to rise, making it the next structural test.

A 4-hour close above the channel boundary would neutralize the earlier breakdown and open another attempt at $66,000. BTC must clear $66,000 before the rebound can be treated as a stronger continuation rather than another failed recovery.

If Bitcoin is rejected near $65,000, $64,300 becomes the first support. Losing it would put $63,200 back under pressure.

The broader recovery remains valid while BTC holds above $62,500. A 4-hour close below that level would invalidate the current structure and bring $61,500 and $60,000 back into focus.

What to Expect Next

• Bullish case: BTC holds $64,300, closes back inside the rising channel and challenges $66,000.
• Bearish case: Bitcoin is rejected near the channel boundary and loses $64,300, exposing $63,200.
• Key catalyst: Continued ETF inflows and changing expectations for a September rate increase.
• Invalidation: A 4-hour close below $62,500 would invalidate the immediate recovery structure.

FAQs

Was the Fed decision bullish for Bitcoin?

Only partly. Avoiding an immediate hike reduced pressure, but the three dissenting votes showed that support for tighter policy is growing.

Are Bitcoin ETF inflows back?

One positive session ended the outflow streak, but demand was concentrated in IBIT. More inflow days are needed to establish a wider recovery.

What would confirm Bitcoin’s recovery?

Bitcoin needs to close back above the broken channel boundary near $65,000 and then clear $66,000.

 

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