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Bitcoin Price Forecast

November 4, 2026

 min read

Bitcoin reclaims $78,000 as U.S. midterm uncertainty eases

Bitcoin reclaims $78,000 as election fears ease, but ETF outflows test the strength of its recovery.

Bitcoin reclaimed $78,000 on November 4, updated at 8:23 UTC, reversing an earlier selloff that pushed it to roughly $75,700 as U.S. midterm election uncertainty eased.

The sharp BTC recovery reflects easing uncertainty in the crypto market.

Bitcoin dropped initially in response to the Democratic sweep of the midterm elections, but has since recovered as a clear outcome resolves political uncertainty, said TDX Strategies founder Dick Lo.

Important Read: Democrats win Congress as crypto legislation remains in focus

Clearer results ease market nerves

Democrats won control of both the House and Senate, raising expectations of legislative gridlock with President Donald Trump.

However, Trump can still govern through executive orders while leveraging his veto authority to counter Democratic bills.

With the results now confirmed, that uncertainty is gone, giving market participants confidence to re-enter the market. We’re also seeing the same price action on S&P and Nasdaq on Hyperliquid, said Martin Lee, head of insights at DWF Labs.

U.S. stock futures also pared earlier losses on Wednesday, with S&P 500 futures down 0.5% and Nasdaq futures off 0.8%, Reuters reported.

U.S. employment report for October is scheduled for Friday, November 6, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ release calendar.

ETF selling tests the rebound

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $115.6 million in net outflows on November 3, following $398.6 million in outflows on November 2, according to Farside Investors.

Together, those sessions pulled $514.2 million from the funds.

BlackRock’s IBIT recorded $95 million in outflows on November 3, while Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust lost $52.6 million.

Inflows into several other funds partly offset those withdrawals, including $21.9 million into Bitwise’s BITB.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, expects Bitcoin could rebound toward $82,000.

Bitcoin is rallying back as Trump has indicted that he will respect the election results and as US voters have voted against the war, there is now hope that peace negotiations will resume. Bitcoin is now oversold and should rally back towards the 82,000 level as its next target, said Thielen.

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