Bitcoin Holds $65K as Weak US Jobs Report Cuts Rate-Hike Bets. Can BTC Clear $66K Before CPI?

Bitcoin is holding near $65,000 on August 10 after Friday's U.S. jobs report showed payroll employment fell by 23,000 in July. The weaker labor data reduced expectations for a September Fed rate hike, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs added $865.3 million across the five sessions through August 7. BTC has held most of its latest recovery, but the 4-hour chart still needs a break above $66,000 before the move becomes stronger.

Key Takeaways

• U.S. nonfarm payroll employment fell by 23,000 in July, while May and June job gains were revised down by 103,000 combined.
• Markets reduced expectations for a September Fed rate hike after the jobs report, with July CPI due on August 12.
• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $865.3 million in net inflows across five straight sessions from August 3 to 7.
• BTC trades near $65,000, with $66,000 remaining the main breakout test and $64,300 providing the first support below price.

Weak Jobs Report Takes Pressure Off September Rate Bets

The July employment report gave markets a weaker labor signal than expected. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said nonfarm payroll employment fell by 23,000, while the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1%. A Reuters poll had expected payrolls to increase by 80,000.

The revisions added to the weakness. May payroll growth was cut from 129,000 to 63,000, while June was revised from 57,000 to 20,000. Together, the previous two months were revised down by another 103,000 jobs.

That changed the rate discussion. Reuters reported that futures markets put the probability of a September Fed hike near 48% on Monday, down from 67% a week earlier. The softer labor market gives the Fed more room to wait, but inflation remains the next major test.

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Build a Stronger Cushion

ETF demand has also improved substantially. Farside Investors shows U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $170.1 million in net inflows on August 3, followed by $211.5 million, $244.4 million, $137.6 million and $101.7 million over the next four sessions.

That puts the five-session total at $865.3 million, with every reported session finishing positive. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for most of the demand and added another $86.7 million on Friday.

The flows do not prove that ETF buying caused Bitcoin's latest move, but they show that institutional demand remained supportive as the macro backdrop improved. That is a stronger cushion than the uneven ETF recovery Bitcoin was dealing with earlier in July.

Bitcoin Holds Near $65K With CPI Next

CoinMarketCap showed Bitcoin near $65,026 at around 4:40 p.m. PKT on August 10, with a 24-hour range between roughly $64,779 and $65,402. Barron's also reported that BTC reached a two-week high near $65,393 overnight.

The next macro test arrives Wednesday, August 12, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases July CPI. A hotter reading could bring rate-hike expectations back into focus after Friday's jobs report pushed them lower.

Bitcoin has therefore held the jobs-report recovery without yet producing a decisive technical breakout. ETF demand remains supportive, but price still needs to confirm the improvement.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis on the 4-Hour Chart

Bitcoin's recovery has now moved beyond the $62,500 area tested earlier this month, but the 4-hour structure is approaching the part of the chart where previous rallies failed.

The first test sits at $66,000. Bitcoin traded above this level several times in late July, but buyers could not hold it. Price reached roughly $66,900 on July 21 before falling back below $66,000 over the following sessions. That makes the current move more than another test of a round-number resistance.

A completed 4-hour close above $66,000 would improve the immediate structure, but $66,900 is the stronger confirmation level. Clearing the July swing high would remove the last major high from the previous recovery and show that buyers have done something they failed to do during the July advance.

The downside structure has improved as well. $64,300 has repeatedly appeared around recent pullbacks and now provides the first level that needs to hold. A rejection from the upper resistance followed by a move below $64,300 would leave Bitcoin back inside the same structure that contained the July rebound.

The larger line in the sand remains $62,500. A return below that level would erase most of the latest recovery and invalidate the current attempt to build a stronger short-term structure.

Bitcoin therefore enters the CPI release close to a decision area. A move through $66,000 would put the July swing high under pressure, but the stronger bullish signal comes only if buyers can also clear $66,900 rather than producing another rejection from the same part of the chart.

What to Expect Next

• Bullish case: A 4-hour close above $66,000 opens another test of $66,900. Clearing the July swing high would confirm a stronger breakout.
• Bearish case: Rejection near resistance followed by a loss of $64,300 would put the current recovery under pressure.
• Key catalyst: July CPI on August 12 could determine whether the weaker jobs report continues to support lower rate-hike expectations.
• Invalidation: A completed 4-hour close below $62,500 would invalidate the current recovery structure.

FAQs

What does Bitcoin need to break for the recovery to strengthen?

Bitcoin first needs to close above $66,000 on the 4-hour chart. A move above the July swing high near $66,900 would provide stronger confirmation.

What happens if Bitcoin falls below $64,300?

A loss of $64,300 would weaken the immediate recovery and increase the risk of another move toward $62,500.

Why is $62,500 important for Bitcoin?

It marks the lower area from which the latest recovery developed. A 4-hour close below it would invalidate the current short-term structure.

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