XRP Holds $1.45 as the CLARITY Act Heads to Its Most Important Vote on Thursday

XRP briefly touched $1.50 on Sunday before settling back to $1.45, right at the old resistance level that is now trying to flip into support. The catalyst driving everything this week is the CLARITY Act markup in the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday May 14 at 10:30 AM EST, the last realistic window before Memorial Day recess on May 21 effectively freezes the legislative calendar. Spot XRP ETFs have accumulated $1.37 billion in cumulative inflows across seven providers since launching in November 2025, and Standard Chartered has projected $4 to $8 billion in XRP ETF inflows by year-end under a favorable CLARITY Act outcome. The banking lobby formally rejected the stablecoin compromise on May 9, but Chairman Tim Scott has not moved the date. Whether XRP holds $1.45 or slides back into its range depends heavily on what happens Thursday morning.

Key Takeaways:

• The Senate Banking Committee markup of the CLARITY Act is scheduled for Thursday May 14 at 10:30 AM EST. If the bill does not clear committee before the May 21 Memorial Day recess, lawmakers have warned the next viable window could be 2030.
• Polymarket odds for the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 peaked near 80% before sliding to around 62-75% after banks rejected the stablecoin yield compromise on May 9.
• Spot XRP ETFs have pulled in $1.37 billion in cumulative inflows since November 2025. The $25.80 million single-day net inflow last week was the largest in over four months. Total AUM across seven products sits at $1.53 billion.
• XRP touched $1.50 on May 11 for the first time in weeks, then pulled back to $1.45 in what looks like an orderly retest of old resistance as new support rather than a rejection.

What the May 14 CLARITY Act Markup Means for XRP

The CLARITY Act has been stuck in the Senate Banking Committee since January. Two earlier markups were scrapped over last-minute objections. This time, Chairman Tim Scott scheduled the session for May 14v at 10:30 AM EST and has not flinched despite the banking lobby's formal rejection of the stablecoin yield compromise by the American Bankers Association, Bank Policy Institute, and Independent Community Bankers of America.

The pressure is real here because if the bill does not clear committee before the May 21 Memorial Day recess, the next viable legislative window slides to 2030, when a new Congress would need to restart the entire process. Keep in mind the House passed its version 294 to 134 back in July 2025, so the Senate is the bottleneck.

For XRP specifically, the CLARITY Act matters more than it does for BTC or ETH because it would permanently embed XRP's commodity classification in federal law. The SEC and CFTC jointly classified XRP as a digital commodity on March 17, 2026, but that was an interpretive release that a future administration could reverse. The CLARITY Act makes it statutory. That distinction is the entire mechanism behind the institutional capital case: asset managers, custody banks, and broker-dealers all need statutory clarity before their compliance teams sign off on XRP products at scale.

Ripple CLO Stuart Alderoty called the markup "a hard-earned milestone" and added that "Washington has a narrow window, let's not waste it."

The ETF Flow Picture Behind XRP's Move

The institutional bid is already building ahead of the vote. Spot XRP ETFs launched in November 2025 across seven providers and have accumulated $1.37 billion in cumulative inflows through early May 2026. Total assets under management now sits at $1.53 billion. The $25.80 million single-day inflow last week was the largest in over four months, and flows were positive across multiple days (roughly $9.23 million on May 6, $8.11 million on May 5, and $4.36 million on May 8) led by issuers like Bitwise, Canary, and Franklin.

Standard Chartered has projected $4 to $8 billion in XRP ETF inflows by year-end if the CLARITY Act passes. That projection assumes commodity classification unlocks a wave of filings from firms that have been waiting specifically because of XRP's regulatory ambiguity. On April 27, the SEC published a notice allowing XRP inclusion in fast-tracked Commodity-Based Trust Shares alongside BTC, ETH, and SOL, which further supports the institutional pipeline.

$1.45 Is the Crucial Level to Watch Right Now

XRP opened the week at $1.40, sold off to around $1.38 between May 8 and May 9, then recovered steadily and touched $1.50 on May 11 before settling to current levels around $1.45. 

The dip to $1.38 was not really a breakdown. It hit the same support zone that has held XRP multiple times in 2026, buyers showed up, volume picked up, and the recovery pushed price above the $1.45 level that had been acting as resistance for months.

The fact that price managed to touch $1.50 mark as well this time is good news for XRP bulls. It was the first clean print above $1.45 in weeks, and the pullback since then looks quite orderly. XRP is holding above its old resistance, which is exactly what a support flip looks like in the early stages.

The levels from here are pretty straightforward. Hold $1.45 on a 4H closing basis and the breakout stays intact. Above that, $1.50 is the immediate resistance, $1.55 is the first target, and a weekly close above $1.55 opens a retest of $1.80. 

Lose $1.45 and XRP slides back into the range it just escaped. Below $1.40, the $1.38 support is the next meaningful level, followed by $1.35 and then $1.30 to $1.28 zone. 

What to Expect Next

• Bullish: CLARITY Act clears committee on Thursday and XRP holds $1.45. First target $1.55, and a move to $1.80 becomes realistic if full Senate passage looks likely before July 4.
• Bearish: Markup gets delayed or the bill fails in committee. XRP loses $1.45 and slides back to $1.38 to $1.40 range. Below $1.35 gets ugly.
• Key catalyst: Thursday May 14, 10:30 AM EST. Senate Banking Committee executive session. This is it.
• Invalidation: Daily close below $1.30 means the regulatory premium has fully unwound and the CLARITY Act narrative has failed.

Closing Thoughts

Everything about XRP's near-term price action funnels into one room in the Dirksen Senate Office Building on Thursday morning. The ETF flows are building, the institutional pipeline is ready, and the SEC has already given XRP the commodity nod alongside BTC and ETH. What the market needs now is for Congress to make that classification permanent law before the Memorial Day recess slams the window shut. 

If the markup goes well, XRP has a genuine shot at $1.55 and beyond. If it does not, expect a slide back into the $1.30 to $1.40 range where XRP spent most of 2026 so far. The $1.45 level holding or breaking in the next 48 hours will tell you which scenario the market believes in.