Bitcoin Hits 11-Week High Above $79,000 Before Geopolitical Volatility Triggers Pullback

Bitcoin surged to its highest level in nearly three months on Wednesday, reaching $79,350 mark after President Trump extended the US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely. Despite Glassnode’s Risk Index hitting zero, a signal of a "cleared risk landscape," the rally hit a wall as oil prices jumped back to $94 per barrel. With short-term holders realizing $4.4 million in profit, three times the typical "local top" threshold, the path to $80,000 remains blocked by mounting energy security concerns and a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin touched $79,350 on Wednesday, marking its highest price point in over 11 weeks.
• Glassnode’s Risk Index hit a perfect zero, signaling a low-risk regime for the first time in months.
• President Trump ordered the US Navy to destroy any vessels attempting to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Short-term holders realized $4.4 million in profit, a level that has historically signaled local price peaks in 2026.
• The Fear and Greed Index improved from "extreme fear" to "fear" as 74 percent of traders target $84,000.

Glassnode Risk Index Hits Zero as Market Structure Improves

The ongoing Bitcoin rally has triggered a rare signal in systemic risk modeling. According to Glassnode, the "Risk Index," which measures market health on a scale of 0 to 100, is currently hovering at zero. This indicates a "cleared risk landscape," an environment where selling pressure has been largely exhausted.

First time since Oct 10: Moderate Strategy flips to high confidence. Risk Index at 0, signaling a cleared risk landscape.

After 7 years of research and extensive backtesting, we’re introducing Bitcoin Vector: a systematic framework for #BTC exposure, validated across market… pic.twitter.com/xWZl8QzcuS

— glassnode (@glassnode) April 20, 2026

Analysts noted that the "Moderate Strategy," a model used to track upside momentum, has flipped to "High Confidence." This shift is supported by aggressive demand from spot buyers and consistent inflows into Bitcoin ETPs.

Trump Extends Iran Ceasefire as Energy Security Risks Mount

On the other hand, geopolitical developments continue to act as the primary driver for volatility. On Wednesday, President Trump announced an indefinite extension of the US-Iran ceasefire, stating he would wait for a "unified proposal" from Tehran’s divided leadership. However, the tone remains tense as Trump issued a direct warning to the Iranian Navy regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump ordered the US Navy to strike and destroy any boats attempting to place mines in the strait, promising that all 159 Iranian naval ships would find themselves "at the bottom of the sea" if they interfered. 

This escalation, combined with a tripling of mine-clearing operations, caused oil prices to leap back toward triple digits. The IEA Chief warned that the world is currently facing "the biggest energy security threat in history," which took the steam out of the Bitcoin rally and pushed the price back toward $77,300.

Bitcoin Bulls Battle for the 78,200 Resistance Level

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s move above $78,200 was significant but lacked the momentum to stay there. This level acted as a major rejection point last week, and while BTC managed to peak at $79,388 on Wednesday morning, it failed to flip the area into support. Right now, the bulls are trying to push back above this level to retest the $80,000 psychological level.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour chart. Bitcoin is currently sitting below the $78,200 resistance level after losing steam following the Trump announcement
For the long-term bearish trend to officially break, bulls must achieve a decisive close above $80,000. Currently, the price is sitting below previous resistance. If the current dip continues, the level to watch is $75,000. Dipping below this mark would be a negative signal, likely bringing the $73,500 liquidity cluster back into play where significant buyers previously emerged.

However, the Glassnode Risk Index is keeping the bulls optimistic as market is showing signs of coming out of this downtrend.

What to Expect Next

• Bullish Scenario: A decisive break and daily close above $80,000 would act as a major technical catalyst. This would clear the path for a further recovery toward $90,000.
• Bearish Scenario: Failure to reclaim the $78,200 resistance could lead to further cooling. If the price drops below the $75,000 mark, it would bring the $73,500 liquidity cluster back into play as a critical support zone.
• Key Catalyst: The primary driver remains the fundamental catalysts, including potential Fed rate cuts, the CLARITY Act, or a lasting Middle East truce. 
• Invalidation: A move below $73,500 would signal that the current "cleared risk" landscape has shifted, potentially renewing bearish pressure on the market structure.

Why did Bitcoin drop after hitting $79,388?

The surge was cut short by rising energy security concerns. Trump’s order to destroy naval vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and a 4 percent jump in oil prices shifted investor focus back to global geopolitical risks.

What is the Glassnode Risk Index?

It is a proprietary metric that measures systemic risk. A reading of zero suggests that the market landscape is "cleared" of immediate systemic selling pressure, signaling a low-risk regime.

What are the key support levels for BTC?

The immediate support is just above $75,000. If Bitcoin fails to hold this, analysts expect a drop toward the $73,500 area where significant liquidity is clustered.