Arthur Hayes Signals Bitcoin to Hit New Highs in 2026 Amid Expanding Dollar Liquidity

According to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, Bitcoin (BTC) could reach new all-time highs in 2026 as global dollar liquidity is expected to expand again. He argues that monetary conditions, rather than short-term price momentum, remain the key driver for Bitcoin’s long-term value.

Hayes analyzed Bitcoin's performance in 2025 against gold and technology stocks. Over the past year, BTC fell by more than 14%, while gold surged by more than 44% and technology stocks rose rapidly. All this happened due to tight liquidity.

“Dollar liquidity must expand for that to happen,” Hayes said, adding that he is expecting less tight monetary conditions in 2026.

Hayes: Bitcoin is Monetary Technology

Despite recent setbacks, Hayes treats Bitcoin as a monetary technology. He predicts that reaching a higher Bitcoin value depends on sustained liquidity growth.

He cited several potential reasons, including a possible expansion of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, increased bank lending to government-backed industries, and declining mortgage rates. Hayes also highlighted rising U.S. military spending, which indirectly contributes to monetary expansion and has historically benefited scarce assets like Bitcoin.

Other market veterans, such as Abra CEO Bill Barhydt and venture capitalist Tim Draper, also shared Hayes' view. Both expect a Bitcoin breakout in 2026 as global financial conditions ease.