JPMorgan Chase has revealed their projections of a more conservative future for the stablecoin market. While many of the peers forecasted the stablecoin market to reach a trillion dollars, JPMorgan predicts the market to reach $500 billion by 2028. The figure was released on Thursday as part of research led by strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. Some financial institutions forecast that the stablecoin market will reach up to $2 trillion by 2028.

JPMorgan Chase Predicts Stablecoin Market Condition

The report shared by JPMorgan Chase emphasized that the majority of the stablecoin demand remains a crypto-native activity. For example, the demand for stablecoin is firmly limited to DeFi (decentralized finance), trading, crypto company treasury management, and collateralization. According to JPMorgan, 88% of current demand originates from these uses, while payment applications contribute a mere 6%.

“We find forecasts for an exponential expansion of the stablecoin universe from $250 billion currently to $1 trillion–$2 trillion over the coming years as far too optimistic,” the analysts wrote, challenging popular narratives of explosive growth driven by broader payment adoption.

Stablecoins, digital tokens pegged to assets like the U.S. dollar, play a foundational role in crypto ecosystems. They offer a stable unit of account in volatile markets and facilitate cross-border transactions. However, JPMorgan’s report suggests that, despite their usefulness, stablecoins are unlikely to displace traditional financial tools such as bank deposits or money market funds. The reasons for that are limited yield opportunities and friction when converting between fiat and crypto assets.

JPMorgan further pushed back against comparisons between stablecoins and China’s e-CNY or mobile payment giants like Alipay and WeChat Pay. The bank argues that these centralized systems operate under entirely different frameworks and cannot be used as accurate predictors of stablecoin adoption patterns.

Instead, the report frames stablecoin growth as “moderate and crypto-driven,” grounded in ecosystem-specific utility rather than broad-based mainstream adoption.

This restrained view contrasts sharply with projections from Standard Chartered, which released its own forecast in April. The rival bank suggested that the U.S. legislative push, particularly the potential passage of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (Genius) Act, could catalyze a surge in stablecoin supply. According to Standard Chartered, such regulation could legitimize the industry and potentially push the stablecoin market to $2 trillion by 2028, nearly 10 times its current size.

Despite these contrasting views, one area of consensus remains the same, i.e., regulation will play a critical role in shaping the future of stablecoins. The U.S. Congress is expected to vote on the Genius Act later this year, a move that could introduce clearer rules and investor protections. Until then, JPMorgan maintains a measured stance, highlighting that while stablecoins are here to stay, their growth story may be more evolution than revolution.

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